• Large Hail
- Damaging Winds
- A Few Tornadoes
• Frequent Lightning
Good morning everyone, wanted to give a quick update on what to expect from today's storms. As of this morning, the "enhanced" risk region no longer covers most of North Texas, and instead just covers the Red River counties down in to Dallas and Tarrant, but only a small sliver in the extreme North of those cointies, leaving the rest of North Texas under a "Slight" risk. However, this does not mean we can let our guard down for counties outside of the "Enhanced" risk areas, folks inside of the "Slight" risk area need to pay close attention as well.
The brownish orange colored outline represents the "Enhanced" risk area, the yellow colored outline represents the "Slight" risk area.
Threats today may include:
• Large Hail
• Frequent Lightning
Forecast Timing for today's storms is between 4 PM and 12 AM.
All is calm right now across North Texas for this Wednesday night, however, that may not be the case for us here in North Texas Thursday evening.
A cold front is expected to move into North Texas tomorrow (Thursday), and we expect storms to begin to fire up and develop along this front by late afternoon Thursday. If storms are able to develop, there will be a good chance that they will become strong, if not severe. The highest risk will be for lightning with large hail and damaging winds being the next highest. There is a risk for flash flooding with a relatively LOW tornado risk. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be late in the day on Thursday.
Portions of North Texas will be in the "Enhanced" risk level tomorrow afternoon as of this evening, however this is NOT set in stone and this COULD change. The "Enhanced" risk area looks to only contain areas in NE Texas at this time, as represented by the area circled in "peach" color. Areas under this "Enhanced" risk as of tomorrow afternoon could possibly see the threat of larger hail and a few tornadoes.
Areas in North Texas not included in this "Enhanced" risk will be under a "Slight" risk, as represented by the area circled in Yellow. Again, this is NOT set in stone, and COULD change as well. Areas under this "Slight" risk as of tomorrow afternoon could possibly see the threat of large hail and isolated tornadoes CANNOT be ruled out.
There are still many uncertainties at this time for this event. Timing, threats, risks, risk levels, risk areas, outlooks etc. COULD change as we go through tonight and through the morning and day time hours tomorrow and continue to receive new data. Please stay tuned for updates tomorrow and tomorrow morning, and remember to BE WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW (THURSDAY) AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Good morning everyone! Here's a quick update on the possible severe storms this week. Images and forecasts are courtesy of the NWS Fort Worth.
Courtesy NWS Fort Worth - Some isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early this evening along and northwest of a Cisco to Bowie line. IF storms develop, they will likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rain may also accompany these storms. Otherwise, expect warm, breezy and humid conditions today. Temperatures will climb into the 80s at most locations and a few spot across the northwest will reach the lower 90s.
Courtesy NWS Fort Worth - There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of North and Central Texas Wednesday with the best chances being along and west of I-35. Some strong to severe storms are possible. The main hazards with these storms will be from large hail, damaging straight-line winds and lightning. A heavy rain threat will also be possible beneath any slow-moving thunderstorms.
Courtesy NWS Fort Worth - Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as an upper level trough translates the Central and Southern Plain, and a weak cold front pushes through the region. The best chances for precipitation will likely occur across the eastern half of the region. A few storms should become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Storms should end from west to east Thursday evening.
I hope everyone has enjoyed this Easter weekend and the cooler weather! This next week, we will climb back up into the 80s each day through Thursday, and also have some chances of rain in the forecast each day. Monday and Tuesday, we only have about a 20% chance of rain at the highest amounts. Of course, anything that may form could become strong to severe, small to large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats, however, we don't expect much to happen Monday or Tuesday. On Tuesday, if we see any storms, they will mainly be in Northwestern portions of the region where the atmosphere will be more favorable.
Wednesday and Thursday however, we expect a higher chance of storms for the region, these may be strong to severe. Wednesday, we will heat up into the low to mid 80s, we will be windy across much of the area, with about a 30% to 40% chance of storms to the West and Northwest of the DFW Metroplex, and a 20% to 30% isolated chance of storms including the Metroplex and an area roughly from Sherman to Paris and Southward to Brownwood. The main threats for Wednesday will be small to large hail and damaging winds.
On Thursday, we will see the greatest chance of storms for this week. Numerous storms will be expected across the region. This greatest threat WILL include the DFW Metroplex, with a 50% to 70% chance of storms. Any storms that develop in the orange shaded area of the map for Thursday will likely be severe. The main threats for Thursday will be small to large hail and damaging winds.
It's still a few days out for Wednesday and Thursday, so the forecasts and predictions may change. As I say that at this time, I wouldn't rule out the isolated possibility for a tornado or two Wednesday or Thursday (mainly for Thursday) in the areas with the greater storm chances, given the fact that severe thunderstorms sometimes may organize themselves into tornadic supercells...however, that may change over the coming days, and I am NOT saying this will be a severe weather or tornado outbreak AT THIS TIME. I also do not expect tornadoes to be a main threat AT THIS TIME, and again this COULD change.
We do encourage you again, to pay attention to the latest forecasts and latest information this week as forecasts could potentially change and risk levels and threats may change as we near the event and begin to analyze new information and data.
We will have more updates for the storm threats and forecasts tomorrow evening...please stay tuned!
Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow (Sunday, November 2), as a soggy week is in store for North Texas!
This week, there is a chance of rain each day, Monday through Wednesday from a storm system that will approach the region by late Monday night. Models are predicting 3+ inches of rainfall in some locations through Thursday of this week, however, most locations such as those in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex are only expected to see 2-2.5 inch rainfall totals.
A majority of the rainfall is forecast to fall on Tuesday, when widespread rainfall is expected through Wednesday...this will be the main event. Additional rainfall is expected through Wednesday night as the system begins exiting and clearing out of North Texas. The system is expected to completely exit North Texas by Thursday morning, however, it is possible we could have a few patchy showers or areas of drizzle through midday. Thursday afternoon, we expect partly cloudy skies across the region.
This week is expected to be cooler than this past week, highs on Monday in the mid 60s to low 70s, and highs in the mid 50s to low-to-mid 60s Tuesday through Thursday across the region.
We're in for a dry and hot day across North Texas today. We expect to see temperatures in the high 80s to mid 90s, possibly some high 90s and even low 100s in far Northwest parts of the region, as well as sunny skies and VERY low humidity. We also have Southern winds around 15-20 mph across the region today, making for an extreme fire danger across much of North Texas. Make sure to use caution with any kind of open flames or sparks today and report any grass fires to your local fire department as any grass fire can quickly grow out of control today.
Forecast Graphics from NWS Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
While today has been a cooler day across North Texas, don't let that fool you! We'll break down how high we'll see high temperatures climb this week, and if we see any rain in sight during the rest of this week and this next weekend in this blog post.
Overnight tonight, we expect to see lows in the low to mid 40s. Outlying areas could potentially see lower temperatures (especially areas with the most clear skies), and some areas could see some frost. Remember to cover any vegetation that cannot handle freezing temperature/frost.
Rest of the Week
Tomorrow (May 1, 2014), we should see temperatures climb back in to the low-mid 70s. We also expect mostly sunny skies across the region on Thursday with a Northwest wind at 5-10 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Tomorrow night, we will see overnight lows fall back down in to the low 40s to 50s, with a partly cloudy sky and a Northwest wind at 5-10 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Friday, we begin to heat up again to near seasonal temperatures once more. We expect to see mostly sunny skies across the region with highs near 80 and a wind from the West at 5-10 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Friday night, we expect partly cloudy skies with a low around 52 and a West-North-West wind at 5 mph, becoming South after midnight. No precipitation is forecast.
Saturday, we warm up a bit more, seeing highs more seasonable in the mid to high 80s, possibly some temperatures at or close to 90. Southwest wind at 5-10 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Saturday night, we expect mostly clear skies, with a low near 61 and a South wind near 10 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Sunday, we return to seasonable highs with sunny skies and temperatures reaching near 90, some locations may see temperatures in the high 90s and possibly even close to or at 100 degrees. Also, we may see a wind from the Southwest at 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Saturday night, mostly clear skies, a low around 64 with a South wind around 15 mph, gusts 20 mph. No precipitation is forecast.
Below is your video forecast from North Texas Storm Center.
Below is your 7-Day Forecast:
As we approach the end of the work week, we may begin to see travel and road conditions begin to deteriorate as a winter storm moves into North Texas. This event is much different than the last winter precipitation event the saw just last week, and models are showing close to a 100% chance that we will see wintry precipitation in North Texas, as well as icy and slick roadways (this includes the DFW Metroplex) late this week. We will break down the timing and what to expect of this winter weather event in this blog post.
Below is an image from the NWS website showing the area where a winter storm watch has been issued (counties shaded in blue are under a winter storm watch):
Enjoy the beautiful, warm day while we have it. Tomorrow, on Wednesday, we will see mostly sunny skies across the region with highs in the upper 70's and a wind out of the Southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.
During the overnight hours Wednesday night, we begin to cool off and see lows around the upper 30's by midnight Thursday morning. A cold rain will begin to move into North Texas overnight, late, freezing rain is not expected.
During the day on Thursday, we could still be seeing some cold rain around the region during the morning hours, however Northern areas of North Texas could see some freezing rain, lasting until around noon. After noon, we may see a break in precipitation until the late afternoon hours roll around.
Thursday afternoon, the precipitation will return and we could begin to see freezing rain and ice around North Texas in the areas shaded in purple, THIS INCLUDES THE METROPLEX, however, areas Southeast of Dallas and Fort Worth will most likely see only a cold rain.
Overnight Thursday, we will see temperatures dipping down into the 30's & 20's in most areas and freezing rain turning to ice continuing overnight into Friday morning. Be sure to give yourself extra time during you morning commute as roadways, especially elevated roadways, could and most likely have ice on them. Also, be extra cautious of 'black ice' as well, black is ice that is not visible but does pose a risk to lose control of your vehicle.
There will also be a possibility to see some more wintry precipitation on Friday, and on into the weekend. I will have another blog post to break down the timing and chances later on.
What should we expect from this winter storm?
> Cold front arrives Wednesday.
> Freezing rain begins Thursday night, lasting into Friday.
> Poor road conditions, slow morning commute on Friday.
> More winter precip. possible over the weekend.
> Possible power outages, icy roads, and likelihood of having to remain at home for several days.
Stay with North Texas Storm Center for the latest on the winter storm as it closes in on North Texas!
Images from NWS Ft. Worth Website:
The forecast for Thanksgiving Day across North Texas is looking like it will be a pleasant one. Some people will need a heavier jacket, some will need a light jacket during the day, depending on how sensitive you are to cold temperatures. I will break down the timeline of conditions and what to expect throughout the day.
AT WAKE UP
In the morning as we wake up, or if you're running the Turkey Trot in Dallas, Fort Worth or Arlington, we expect to see temperatures in the 20's across North Texas. Some areas COULD possibly drop down to the mid-to-low 20's, if not possibly teens in some of the out-lying areas.
At midday, we will already see temperatures in the low-to-mid 50's, with mostly sunny skies and a South wind of about 5-10 mph.
IN THE AFTERNOON
In the afternoon, we will see highs reaching the mid-to-upper 50's and mostly sunny skies with a wind out of the South at 5-10 mph.
IN THE EVENING
In the evening, temperatures will begin dropping back down into the high-to-mid 40's.
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS