• Large Hail
- Damaging Winds
- A Few Tornadoes
• Frequent Lightning
Good morning everyone, wanted to give a quick update on what to expect from today's storms. As of this morning, the "enhanced" risk region no longer covers most of North Texas, and instead just covers the Red River counties down in to Dallas and Tarrant, but only a small sliver in the extreme North of those cointies, leaving the rest of North Texas under a "Slight" risk. However, this does not mean we can let our guard down for counties outside of the "Enhanced" risk areas, folks inside of the "Slight" risk area need to pay close attention as well.
The brownish orange colored outline represents the "Enhanced" risk area, the yellow colored outline represents the "Slight" risk area.
Threats today may include:
• Large Hail
• Frequent Lightning
Forecast Timing for today's storms is between 4 PM and 12 AM.
All is calm right now across North Texas for this Wednesday night, however, that may not be the case for us here in North Texas Thursday evening.
A cold front is expected to move into North Texas tomorrow (Thursday), and we expect storms to begin to fire up and develop along this front by late afternoon Thursday. If storms are able to develop, there will be a good chance that they will become strong, if not severe. The highest risk will be for lightning with large hail and damaging winds being the next highest. There is a risk for flash flooding with a relatively LOW tornado risk. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be late in the day on Thursday.
Portions of North Texas will be in the "Enhanced" risk level tomorrow afternoon as of this evening, however this is NOT set in stone and this COULD change. The "Enhanced" risk area looks to only contain areas in NE Texas at this time, as represented by the area circled in "peach" color. Areas under this "Enhanced" risk as of tomorrow afternoon could possibly see the threat of larger hail and a few tornadoes.
Areas in North Texas not included in this "Enhanced" risk will be under a "Slight" risk, as represented by the area circled in Yellow. Again, this is NOT set in stone, and COULD change as well. Areas under this "Slight" risk as of tomorrow afternoon could possibly see the threat of large hail and isolated tornadoes CANNOT be ruled out.
There are still many uncertainties at this time for this event. Timing, threats, risks, risk levels, risk areas, outlooks etc. COULD change as we go through tonight and through the morning and day time hours tomorrow and continue to receive new data. Please stay tuned for updates tomorrow and tomorrow morning, and remember to BE WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW (THURSDAY) AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Good morning everyone! Here's a quick update on the possible severe storms this week. Images and forecasts are courtesy of the NWS Fort Worth.
Courtesy NWS Fort Worth - Some isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early this evening along and northwest of a Cisco to Bowie line. IF storms develop, they will likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rain may also accompany these storms. Otherwise, expect warm, breezy and humid conditions today. Temperatures will climb into the 80s at most locations and a few spot across the northwest will reach the lower 90s.
Courtesy NWS Fort Worth - There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of North and Central Texas Wednesday with the best chances being along and west of I-35. Some strong to severe storms are possible. The main hazards with these storms will be from large hail, damaging straight-line winds and lightning. A heavy rain threat will also be possible beneath any slow-moving thunderstorms.
Courtesy NWS Fort Worth - Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as an upper level trough translates the Central and Southern Plain, and a weak cold front pushes through the region. The best chances for precipitation will likely occur across the eastern half of the region. A few storms should become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Storms should end from west to east Thursday evening.
I hope everyone has enjoyed this Easter weekend and the cooler weather! This next week, we will climb back up into the 80s each day through Thursday, and also have some chances of rain in the forecast each day. Monday and Tuesday, we only have about a 20% chance of rain at the highest amounts. Of course, anything that may form could become strong to severe, small to large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats, however, we don't expect much to happen Monday or Tuesday. On Tuesday, if we see any storms, they will mainly be in Northwestern portions of the region where the atmosphere will be more favorable.
Wednesday and Thursday however, we expect a higher chance of storms for the region, these may be strong to severe. Wednesday, we will heat up into the low to mid 80s, we will be windy across much of the area, with about a 30% to 40% chance of storms to the West and Northwest of the DFW Metroplex, and a 20% to 30% isolated chance of storms including the Metroplex and an area roughly from Sherman to Paris and Southward to Brownwood. The main threats for Wednesday will be small to large hail and damaging winds.
On Thursday, we will see the greatest chance of storms for this week. Numerous storms will be expected across the region. This greatest threat WILL include the DFW Metroplex, with a 50% to 70% chance of storms. Any storms that develop in the orange shaded area of the map for Thursday will likely be severe. The main threats for Thursday will be small to large hail and damaging winds.
It's still a few days out for Wednesday and Thursday, so the forecasts and predictions may change. As I say that at this time, I wouldn't rule out the isolated possibility for a tornado or two Wednesday or Thursday (mainly for Thursday) in the areas with the greater storm chances, given the fact that severe thunderstorms sometimes may organize themselves into tornadic supercells...however, that may change over the coming days, and I am NOT saying this will be a severe weather or tornado outbreak AT THIS TIME. I also do not expect tornadoes to be a main threat AT THIS TIME, and again this COULD change.
We do encourage you again, to pay attention to the latest forecasts and latest information this week as forecasts could potentially change and risk levels and threats may change as we near the event and begin to analyze new information and data.
We will have more updates for the storm threats and forecasts tomorrow evening...please stay tuned!
A diagram of tornado alley's rough location (red)
Well, it's that time of year, Spring! While it is an absolutely amazing time to watch all of the new plant life bloom, it is also is a time when we have to watch the skies as well. As many of us North Texans know, North Texas can be a very dangerous place come spring time.. mainly because we're in a region know as 'Tornado Alley'. In case you might not know what Tornado Alley is, Tornado Alley is the region in the United States where most of the tornadoes reported annually occur. North Texas just happens to lie right inside of 'Tornado Alley'. Tornado Alley includes the states of Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois & Missouri. The main reason that 90% of tornadoes hit this region of the U.S because cold, dry air from Canada and the Rocky Mountains meets warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and hot, dry air from the Sonoran Desert, which causes atmospheric instability, heavy precipitation, and many intense thunderstorms.
Since I live in Tornado Alley, what preparedness actions should I take?
Stock photo of extensive tornado damage to a home.
Well, the first thing to note is that tornadoes don't jest happen in the Spring. Tornadoes can occur any time of day, any day of the year so you need to make sure that you are prepared and stay prepared year round and be ready to act at a moments notice. The first preparedness action you should take for a tornado is that you have a safe place to go should a tornado occur. The safest place to be is an an underground shelter, basement or a safe room, however, if there is no safe room, underground shelter or basement available then you should go to a small, windowless interior room or hallway on the lowest level of a sturdy building. "What if I live in a mobile home?" Well here's the thing about mobile homes, they are not safe at all from tornadoes. They can easily be picked up and thrown around like a toddler throwing his toy cars about. If you are in a mobile home during a tornado, abandon it and go to the nearest sturdy building or shelter immediately. "But, what if I'm caught outside during a tornado?" If you are caught outside in the event of a tornado, try to find a sturdy building, storm shelter or basement to seek shelter in. If you cannot quickly walk to a shelter, immediately get into a vehicle, buckle your seatbelt and try to drive to the closest sturdy shelter. If flying debris occurs while you are driving, pull over and park. You have the following options as a last resort; a. stay in your vehicle with the seatbelt on. Put your head down below the windows, covering your hands with a blanket if possible. or b. if you can safely get noticeably lower than the level of the roadway, exit your car, and lie in that area, covering your head with your hands.. your choice should be driven by your specific circumstances. Just remember, to always have a plan in place as severe weather and tornadoes can strike ANY TIME, ANY DAY OF THE YEAR.
Severe Weather Preparedness Guides
Below I have attached links to some severe weather safety guides from The Red Cross and The National Weather Service. Click 'read more' to view the guide links.
A radar frame indicating large hail over Salesville, TX near Mineral Wells
The skies opened up over many of us here in North Texas yesterday after midday dropping some very much needed rain for us. Thankfully, the storms stayed out of severe limits as they reached the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, but for others we can't say the same. The storms dropped some large hail over portions of North Texas. Some of the reported hail as large as egg sized. Wise county had numerous reports of hail between 0.88" to 1.75" in diameter. Dallas county had a few reports of hail between 0.75" and 1.75" in diameter. Jack county had some reports of hail 0.75" to 1.75" as well as Montague county.
A regional view of the rainfall totals over North Texas.
As well as the hail North Texas saw yesterday, we saw some pretty nice rainfall totals. The image to the left shows rainfall totals across North Texas. In far North-Western portions of North Texas, we saw rainfall totals ranging between .5" to 1". In South-Western portions of North Texas, we saw rainfall totals ranging between .5" to 2.5". In the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, we saw rainfall totals ranging between .5" to 4". Along the Red River, in a line from Muenster to Bonham, we saw anywhere from 2" to 5", however the 5" was mostly around Van Alstyne. In South-Western portions of North Texas, we totals around 1" of rainfall. Notice the blue area though between DeSoto to Meridian, no that's not a gap in our data, they really did only see between a trace to .5" of rainfall from these storms yesterday. Below I have posted a gallery of a few of the radar images from yesterday as well as rainfall totals as of this morning.
A few of the radar images & rainfall totals from yesterday's storms.
The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows a SLIGHT RISK of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS throughout the day today (June 6, 2012). We will keep you updated here on our website and on Facebook as well as on Twitter.
Courtesy: NWS (The National Weather Service) - The wireless industry, The FCC, and FEMA will roll-out the WEA's (Wireless Emergency Alerts) system nationwide this year.
The NWS will start utilizing this by pushing extreme weather warnings over the system in June 2012.
Tornado warnings, flash flood warnings and several other high-end warnings will go direct to wireless users in an affected county automatically if their device is compatible.
This service will be offered for FREE and will NOT count against any cellular data or SMS/Text Messaging plans. WEA does not use location tracking to send alerts. It is just like emergency weather alerts you see on local TV, WEA are broadcast from area cell towers to mobile devices in the area. Every WEA-capable phone within range receives the message, just like every TV shows the emergency weather alert if it is turned on. TV stations, like WEA, don't know exactly who is tuned in.
For more information visit: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php wfo=crh&storyid=83063
Here is the Categorical Outlook for North Texas today. Click to enlarge.
Green = Slight Risk
Orange = General T-Storm Risk
Yellow = Moderate Risk
Inside the yellow lines and along the Red River, there is a MODERATE risk, with a 60% chance of seeing a tornado. Tornado threats may be maximized along the Red River throughout the day. In North Texas, inside the green lines, we are in a SLIGHT risk of severe weather zone. Our tornadoes risk is much smaller here in North Texas, but an ISOLATED tornado CANNOT be ruled out however. Please remain vigilant as conditions may rapidly change throughout the day. Inside of the brown lines, there is a risk of GENERAL thunderstorms.
Here is the Categorical Outlook for North Texas this evening. Click to enlarge.
Green = Slight Risk
Orange = General T-Storm Risk