Watching for thunderstorm development, especially areas where there is clearing from this morning's round of showers and thunderstorms. Not seeing anything severe just yet (as of 1:40 pm), however, in the areas where the skies are clearing and the sun is coming out the atmosphere will begin to destabilize and become more favorable for severe storms. The greatest threats are large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. A watch may be issued for portions of our region later on in the afternoon, so stay tuned for the latest watches and warnings.
We are beginning to see some storms developing to the west of DFW along the dryline, monitoring for severe watches or warnings.
Latest Mesoscale Discussion
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301800Z - 302000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG/E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND SERN KS REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS OF 18Z...POSING MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. FURTHER W...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK AND THEN SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO W TX. BETWEEN THESE SFC FEATURES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TO E...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. GIVEN THIS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ IS GENERALLY PRESENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLEAR...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE PRESENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE KTLX VWP SUGGESTING THE INITIAL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND 0-1 KM WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE BACKED...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME AROUND 00-02Z. ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 37019830 38049791 38269735 37889642 36979664 35129696 33689744 33229836 33339939 34379923 37019830