Rain Returns to North Texas
The NWS SPC says a Tornado Watch may be issued for the area outlined in Red in the next 1-2 hours. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 261853Z - 262100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...RAPID INITIATION OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO NW AND W-CNTRL TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. DISCUSSION...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IS IN PLACE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW/W-CNTRL TX...E OF A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAVY DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM ALVA OK SSWD TO SWEETWATER TX. ONE-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CINH CONTINUES TO ERODE AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NM IS SPREADING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. AS THIS INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE...RAPID TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS SOON AFTER INITIATION WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ESTIMATE MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WINDS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AND BE MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE. EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW/W-CNTRL TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016
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